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TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT JUL 18 1998
 
CELIA CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD 305/15 KT.  CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE
WARMED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...SUGGESTING THAT WINDS SHOULD SOON
DECREASE FROM THE ESTIMATED 50 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.  TWO SHIP
REPORTS...ONE AT 12Z AND ONE FROM VWSD AT 03Z...IMPLY A SOMEWHAT
SMALLER CIRCULATION THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED.
 
THE 06Z AVN...LIKE ITS PREDECESSORS...CONTAINS SPURIOUS STRONG
VORTICES IN ITS INITIALIZATION WHICH WILL LIKELY HAVE AN ADVERSE
IMPACT ON ITS TRACK FORECAST OF CELIA.  NOTWITHSTANDING...THE
CONTROLLING FEATURE FOR TRACK IS THE STRONG ANTICYCLONE THAT IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE NW TO N OF CELIA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
THAT HIGH AND THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL STEERING SHOULD
DRIVE CELIA GENERALLY TOWARD THE NW AND THEN THE WNW AS INDICATED BY
MOST TRACK GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.
 
GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK AND THE REDUCED WIND RADII...IT IS LIKELY
THAT THE THREAT TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IS LESSENED.
ACCORDINGLY...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO IS DISCONTINUING THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AS OF 1500 UTC.  ROUGH SEAS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST...HOWEVER...FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER THE ADJACENT
MARINE AREAS.
 
CELIA IS CURRENTLY OVER 26C WATERS.  BY 36 HOURS IT WILL BE OVER
21C WATERS.  THEREFORE...A SHARP WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/1500Z 21.7N 111.9W    50 KTS
12HR VT     19/0000Z 22.8N 113.9W    45 KTS
24HR VT     19/1200Z 24.0N 116.5W    35 KTS
36HR VT     20/0000Z 25.0N 119.1W    25 KTS
48HR VT     20/1200Z 25.8N 121.4W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     21/1200Z...DISSIPATED 
 
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