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TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT JUL 18 1998
 
THE CENTER OF CELIA CAN BE OBSERVED FROM LOS CABOS RADAR IN MEXICO
AND IT IS ALSO DEPICTED IN THE LAST AVAILABLE SSM/I IMAGE. IT
APPEARS THAT THE STORM IS JUST PASSING ABOUT 120 N MI TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE MOVING NEARLY 305/15.
IF THIS TRACK CONTINUES...AS EXPECTED...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL
PROBABLY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY AS INDICATED BY T-
NUMBERS.  THE CENTER OF THE STORM APPEARS TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SMALL BUT CONCENTRATED AREA OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. 
HOWEVER...IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR LESS...CELIA WILL BE MOVING OVER COOL
WATERS SO A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.  GFDL MODEL ALSO WEAKENS
CELIA. 

THE STORM IS MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER MEAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WESTWARD.
CONSEQUENTLY...MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS FORECAST A GENERAL NORTHWEST
TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. SINCE
CELIA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...IT WILL PROBABLY BE STEERED MORE TO
THE WEST BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS SUGGESTED BY BAM SHALLOW LATER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

NOTE: PLEASE IGNORE THE LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE WEST OF
CELIA GENERATED BY THE AVN MODEL.  THIS FEATURE IS SO LARGE AND SO
UNREALISTIC IN THE MODEL THAT CELIA IS PRACTICALLY NOT REPRESENTED. 
      
AVILA  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/0900Z 20.8N 110.3W    50 KTS
12HR VT     18/1800Z 22.0N 112.0W    50 KTS
24HR VT     19/0600Z 23.5N 114.5W    45 KTS
36HR VT     19/1800Z 24.5N 117.0W    40 KTS
48HR VT     20/0600Z 25.0N 119.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     21/0600Z 26.0N 123.0W    30 KTS
 
 
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