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TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 1998
 
THE CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
310/14.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF MOST OF THE TRACK
FORECAST MODELS.

THE 12Z AVIATION MODEL HAS A STRONG SPURIOUS VORTEX NEAR 17N 117W
WHICH REDUCES MY CONFIDENCE IN THE GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER TO ABOUT 100 NMI OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 12 HOURS AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE POSTED
FOR THIS AREA AS A COURSE OF LEAST REGRET.

THE SHIP 4XGX AT 17Z REPORTED 50 KNOTS WHILE LOCATED ABOUT 90 NMI
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS ON THIS BASIS.  THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS NOT
BEEN WELL ORGANIZED AND DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE 35 KNOTS AT MOST. 
HOWEVER DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO...THERE HAS BEEN AN APPARENT
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS TO 60 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS COLDER
WATER IS ENCOUNTERED.

LAWRENCE 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/0300Z 19.9N 108.5W    50 KTS
12HR VT     18/1200Z 21.2N 110.0W    55 KTS
24HR VT     19/0000Z 22.5N 112.5W    60 KTS
36HR VT     19/1200Z 23.5N 115.0W    55 KTS
48HR VT     20/0000Z 24.0N 117.5W    40 KTS
72HR VT     21/0000Z 24.5N 121.5W    30 KTS
 
 
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