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TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 1998
 
A 45-KNOT OBSERVATION FROM SHIP KGTI AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE SYSTEM WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO DURING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND
HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM STATUS.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CELIA
CAN NOW BE OBSERVED BY THE CUYUTLAN RADAR IN MEXICO.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KNOTS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO BEFORE THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS COOLER SST/S.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/14 KNOTS.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM SO THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS...
INCLUDING CLIMATOLOGY.   

RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW THAT THERE ARE BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS
APPROACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF ZIHUATANEJO.  THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
  
GUINEY/AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/1500Z 18.4N 107.0W    40 KTS
12HR VT     18/0000Z 19.4N 108.9W    45 KTS
24HR VT     18/1200Z 20.1N 111.4W    50 KTS
36HR VT     19/0000Z 20.6N 113.8W    40 KTS
48HR VT     19/1200Z 21.0N 116.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     20/1200Z 21.5N 120.5W    30 KTS
 
 
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