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TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON JUN 29 1998
 
A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION IS STILL EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
...BUT IT IS VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION.  BLAS WAS FORMERLY A VERY
STRONG HURRICANE AND IT IS STILL TAKING ITS TIME IN SPINNING DOWN.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KGWC AND SAB.  BLAS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
IT ENTRAINS DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST...AND WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOON.  IT WILL EVENTUALLY BE CARRIED AS A
LOW IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST IN ANOTHER DAY OR SO.  THE GFDL AND
SHIPS GUIDANCE DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BEFORE THE END OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.
 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/12.  A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF BLAS SHOULD ALLOW THE GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION TO CONTINUE UNTIL
DISSIPATION.
 
MAYFIELD
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/2100Z 18.1N 127.2W    35 KTS
12HR VT     30/0600Z 18.2N 128.9W    30 KTS
24HR VT     30/1800Z 18.3N 131.4W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     01/0600Z 18.6N 134.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     01/1800Z 18.9N 136.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     02/1800Z 19.5N 141.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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