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TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON JUN 29 1998
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS...VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE DECREASING...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KNOTS.  BLAS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...
AND WILL LIKELY BE CARRIED AS A LOW IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST AFTER
ANOTHER DAY OR TWO.
 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/11.  A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF BLAS SHOULD ALLOW THE GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION TO CONTINUE UNTIL
DISSIPATION.  CURRENT TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF
PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE FIXES.
 
MAYFIELD
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/1500Z 18.1N 126.1W    40 KTS
12HR VT     30/0000Z 18.2N 127.8W    35 KTS
24HR VT     30/1200Z 18.4N 130.1W    25 KTS
36HR VT     01/0000Z 18.7N 132.3W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     01/1200Z 19.0N 134.7W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     02/1200Z 19.5N 139.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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