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TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON JUN 29 1998
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/10.  THE 00Z AVIATION MODEL RUN
SHOWS A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE
LBAR...BAM AND STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL P91E SHOW A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION WHILE THE AVIATION MODEL... GFDL AND NOGAPS SHOW A SLIGHT
SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A
COMPROMISE SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS.

AS BLAS SPINS DOWN OVER COOL WATER AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
GONE...THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO DECREASE.  THE
OFFICIAL INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 45 KNOTS AND DISSIPATION
IS EXPECTED AFTER 36 HOURS.

LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/0900Z 18.4N 124.5W    45 KTS
12HR VT     29/1800Z 18.6N 126.0W    35 KTS
24HR VT     30/0600Z 18.9N 128.0W    25 KTS
36HR VT     30/1800Z 19.2N 130.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     01/0600Z 19.5N 133.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     02/0600Z 20.0N 137.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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