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TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 1998

CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE STORM CENTER HAVE WARMED A LITTLE MORE THIS
EVENING BUT SATELLITE IMAGES STILL SHOW A SUBSTANTIAL CIRCULATION. 
CURRENT MAXIMUM WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS 50 KNOTS.  BLAS HAS REMAINED
IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND THIS IS LIKELY ONE OF THE REASONS
THAT IT HAS BEEN SO SLOW TO WEAKEN...IN SPITE OF RELATIVELY COOL
WATERS.  NOTWITHSTANDING...FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND BLAS
SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST AT 10
KNOTS.  THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT SOUTH OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.  IT SHOULD BE
NOTED HOWEVER THAT...IN GENERAL...SEVERAL OF THE DYNAMICALLY-BASED
TRACK PREDICTION MODELS HAVE SHOWN A NORTHWARD BIAS FOR THIS STORM. 
HENCE...IT IS PRUDENT NOT TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FEW
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECASTS THAT SHOWED A MAINLY WESTWARD MOTION.  

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/0300Z 18.3N 123.5W    50 KTS
12HR VT     29/1200Z 18.4N 125.1W    45 KTS
24HR VT     30/0000Z 18.7N 127.5W    35 KTS
36HR VT     30/1200Z 19.0N 130.0W    30 KTS
48HR VT     01/0000Z 19.3N 132.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     02/0000Z 19.5N 137.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
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