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TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 1998
 
THE WARM SPOT CENTER HAS DISAPPEARED...AND THE COLDEST TOPS WITHIN
THE SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAVE WARMED.  BLAS IS DOWNGRADED TO
A 55 KNOT TROPICAL STORM...IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM SAB AND TAFB.  THE CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER 22 TO
23C WATER...AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ROUGHLY PARALLELS
THESE ISOTHERMS.  THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM
BEFORE THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/11.  A PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL ALLOW THIS GENERAL MOTION TO CONTINUE.
CURRENT TRACK BASICALLY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE SHALLOW BAM BUT FASTER THAN CLIPER.
 
MAYFIELD
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/2100Z 18.0N 122.6W    55 KTS
12HR VT     29/0600Z 18.0N 124.2W    45 KTS
24HR VT     29/1800Z 18.0N 126.6W    35 KTS
36HR VT     30/0600Z 18.0N 129.0W    30 KTS
48HR VT     30/1800Z 18.0N 131.5W    25 KTS
72HR VT     01/1800Z 18.0N 136.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
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