ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN JUN 28 1998
 
A WARM SPOT EYE HAS REAPPEARED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SMALL AREA OF COLD TOPPED CONVECTION.  THEREFORE...INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH ON THIS ADVISORY. 
BLAS WAS A STRONG HURRICANE AT ONE TIME...SO IT WILL STILL TAKE A
WHILE FOR IT TO SPIN DOWN.  THE CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER
23 TO 24C WATER...AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IS ROUGHLY
PARALLELS THESE ISOTHERMS.  THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE DISSIPATE
THE SYSTEM BEFORE THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 270/12.  A PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL ALLOW THIS GENERAL MOTION TO
CONTINUE.  CURRENT TRACK BASICALLY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

MAYFIELD

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/1500Z 17.9N 121.6W    65 KTS
12HR VT     29/0000Z 18.0N 123.5W    60 KTS
24HR VT     29/1200Z 18.0N 126.0W    45 KTS
36HR VT     30/0000Z 18.0N 128.5W    35 KTS
48HR VT     30/1200Z 18.0N 131.0W    25 KTS
72HR VT     01/1200Z 18.0N 136.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
NNNN