ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN JUN 28 1998
 
BLAS CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.  THE 00Z AVIATION MODEL
CONTINUES TO SHOW A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BLAS THROUGH 72 HOURS AND
THE TRACK FORECAST MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT THIS IDEA WITH THE LBAR
AND DEEP BAM SHOWING SOME NORTHWARD MOTION AND THE AVIATION...
SHALLOW BAM AND NOGAPS SHOWING A SLIGHT SOUTHERN COMPONENT.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR AND AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY CONTINUING A 270/12 MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS.

THERE IS LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH BLAS BUT THE DVORAK
TECHNIQUE CALLS FOR MAINTAINING HURRICANE FORCE FOR A WHILE LONGER. 
BLAS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGH 72 HOURS.

LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0900Z 17.9N 120.5W    65 KTS
12HR VT     28/1800Z 18.0N 122.5W    55 KTS
24HR VT     29/0600Z 17.9N 124.9W    45 KTS
36HR VT     29/1800Z 17.9N 127.4W    35 KTS
48HR VT     30/0600Z 17.9N 129.8W    25 KTS
72HR VT     01/0600Z 18.0N 134.7W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
NNNN