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HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT JUN 27 1998

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN DECREASING OVER THE CENTER...AND T-NUMBERS
ARE SLOWLY DECLINING.  HOWEVER DVORAK RULES FOR CURRENT INTENSITY
STILL SUPPORT A MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 75 KNOTS AT THIS TIME.  EVEN
THOUGH THE HURRICANE IS MOVING PRACTICALLY PARALLEL TO THE SST
ISOTHERMS... THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH COOLING TO FURTHER WEAKEN BLAS. 
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD BLAS IS PREDICTED TO BE DISSIPATING OVER
WATERS NEAR 23 DEG C.  THE GFDL AND NOGAPS MODELS ALSO DISSIPATE THE
SYSTEM WITHIN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AN EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT CONTINUES TO CARRY BLAS WESTWARD...NEAR
12 KNOTS.  TRACK PREDICTION MODELS SHOW SOME SPREAD...WITH THE
DEEPER-LAYER STEERING MODELS SHOWING A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT
IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.  NONETHELESS...A LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE FOR THE SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE ITS
PREDECESSOR...IS MORE WESTWARD AND IN LINE WITH THE LOWER-LEVEL
STEERING.  THIS IS APPROPRIATE FOR A WEAKENING STORM.
 
PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/2100Z 18.1N 118.4W    75 KTS
12HR VT     28/0600Z 18.3N 120.2W    65 KTS
24HR VT     28/1800Z 18.7N 122.7W    55 KTS
36HR VT     29/0600Z 19.0N 125.0W    40 KTS
48HR VT     29/1800Z 19.5N 127.5W    30 KTS
72HR VT     30/1800Z 20.0N 132.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
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