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HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT JUN 27 1998

THE GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES.  HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A
SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER AND CURRENT INTENSITY
IS ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS.  BLAS IS NEARING 24 DEG C WATERS...
AND...EVEN THOUGH ITS TRACK IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SST
ISOTHERMS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CROSS INTO SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  BLAS SHOULD WEAKEN TO DEPRESSION STATUS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST AROUND 12
KNOTS.  THE 06Z AVN RUN OF THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS A WELL-
DEFINED RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BLAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THUS A
CONTINUED WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE ALBEIT SLIGHTLY
FASTER AND A BIT FARTHER SOUTH.  THIS IS CLOSE TO...BUT A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN...THE MEDIUM-DEPTH BAM FORECAST.  THE DEEP-LAYER BAM
SHOWS A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IN 48 TO 72 HOURS...BUT BY THAT
TIME BLAS SHOULD BE WEAKENED TO THE POINT THAT IT WILL BE AFFECTED
MAINLY BY LOWER- TO MIDDLE-LEVEL STEERING FLOW.

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/1500Z 18.0N 117.1W    75 KTS
12HR VT     28/0000Z 18.4N 119.0W    65 KTS
24HR VT     28/1200Z 18.8N 121.5W    55 KTS
36HR VT     29/0000Z 19.3N 123.7W    40 KTS
48HR VT     29/1200Z 19.8N 126.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     30/1200Z 20.5N 130.5W    25 KTS
 
 
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