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HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI JUN 26 1998
 
THE OBJECTIVE T NUMBERS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING THIS MORNING RANGING
FROM 5.5 TO 6.0.  THIS CORRESPONDED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COLD
RING OF CONVECTION...TOPS TO -70C...AROUND THE EYE.  SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB FIX THE CURRENT INTENSITY
AT 5.5...100 KNOTS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL ADVISORY.  WITH THE
DETERIORATION OF THE OUTFLOW PATTERN AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING...IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. 

THE SYSTEM HAS TAKEN A MORE DECIDEDLY WESTWARD TRACK THE LAST 6 TO
12 HOUR AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/11 KNOTS.  A STRONG
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST NORTH OF BLAS
KEEPING THE SYSTEM ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  
 
GUINEY/LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/1500Z 17.4N 112.4W   100 KTS
12HR VT     27/0000Z 17.7N 114.1W    90 KTS
24HR VT     27/1200Z 18.2N 116.3W    75 KTS
36HR VT     28/0000Z 18.7N 118.5W    55 KTS
48HR VT     28/1200Z 19.3N 121.0W    35 KTS
72HR VT     29/1200Z 20.5N 126.0W    30 KTS
 
 
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