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HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI JUN 26 1998

THERE ARE INTERMITTENT RINGS OF VERY INTENSE CONVECTION SURROUNDING
THE WARM SPOT BUT...IN GENERAL...THE SLOW WEAKENING PROCESS
CONTINUES AS SUGGESTED BY THE SEQUENCE OF OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS.  
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 95 KNOTS AT THIS TIME.  THE FORECAST TRACK
TAKES BLAS OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATER...SO WEAKENING WILL
CONTINUE.
 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/09.  A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF BLAS. CONSEQUENTLY...THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE.  THE LOWER LEVEL STEERING
SHOULD BEGIN TO HAVE MORE INFLUENCE LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0900Z 17.3N 111.0W    95 KTS
12HR VT     26/1800Z 18.0N 112.5W    90 KTS
24HR VT     27/0600Z 19.0N 114.5W    70 KTS
36HR VT     27/1800Z 19.5N 116.5W    50 KTS
48HR VT     28/0600Z 20.5N 119.0W    40 KTS
72HR VT     29/0600Z 22.0N 124.5W    30 KTS
 
 
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