ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU JUN 25 1998
 
A WARM SPOT EYE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A COLD CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST...BUT THE CDO IS NOT AS SYMMETRIC AS BEFORE.  THE DVORAK T
NUMBERS ARE COMING DOWN...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT
100 KNOTS.  THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES BLAS OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER
WATER...SO WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10.  A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF BLAS WILL ALLOW THIS GENERAL MOTION TO CONTINUE AND OUR CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK BASICALLY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE TRACK IS
IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND P91E.  THE LOWER LEVEL STEERING
SHOULD BEGIN TO HAVE MORE INFLUENCE LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

MAYFIELD
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0300Z 17.1N 110.1W   100 KTS
12HR VT     26/1200Z 17.9N 111.5W    90 KTS
24HR VT     27/0000Z 18.9N 113.7W    75 KTS
36HR VT     27/1200Z 19.8N 116.0W    60 KTS
48HR VT     28/0000Z 20.8N 118.6W    45 KTS
72HR VT     29/0000Z 23.0N 124.5W    30 KTS
 
 
NNNN