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HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU JUN 25 1998
 
THE EYE OF BLAS HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS.  IN FACT...IT HAS DISAPPEARED IN THE LATEST INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGES.  THUS...THE ANTICIPATED WEAKENING TREND HAS
BEGUN.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
T NUMBERS TRENDS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 115 KNOTS
FOR THIS ADVISORY WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH 72 HOURS...
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 48 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES
22C WATERS.  THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS98
INTENSITY FORECAST MODELS.  HOWEVER...THE WEAKENING MAY BE
MORE RAPID IF BLAS MOVES AT A FASTER PACE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE NOW OF 305/09 KNOTS.  THE DEEP-LAYER
MEAN RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE PACIFIC SHOULD
KEEP BLAS ON A GENERAL NORTHWEST COURSE THROUGH 48 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DECELERATE AND TAKE A MORE
NORTHERLY HEADING AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL
AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE BAM MODELS.
 
GUINEY/PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/2100Z 16.6N 108.9W   115 KTS
12HR VT     26/0600Z 17.4N 110.3W   100 KTS
24HR VT     26/1800Z 18.6N 112.6W    85 KTS
36HR VT     27/0600Z 19.7N 115.0W    70 KTS
48HR VT     27/1800Z 21.0N 118.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     28/1800Z 23.5N 123.0W    35 KTS
 
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