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HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU JUN 25 1998
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS SUGGEST SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE EYE WERE ERODING BUT HAVE MADE A COMEBACK IN RECENT
PICTURES.  OBJECTIVE T NUMBERS HAVE BEEN RANGING FROM 5.5 TO 6.5
WHILE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 6.0
AND 6.5 RESPECTIVELY.  BASED ON THIS DATA THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS HELD AT 120 KNOTS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE WELL-
ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW AND OVERALL HEALTHY CLOUD PATTERN.  BY 12
HOURS...THE GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
IS PRESERVED AS BLAS ENCOUNTERS PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS.
THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS98 INTENSITY FORECAST
MODELS.
 
BLAS REMAINS ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 300/09 KNOTS.  THE DEEP-LAYER MEAN RIDGE STRETCHING
FROM NORTHERN MEXICO WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP BLAS ON THIS GENERAL HEADING THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH GFDL..BAM DEEP AND
THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL NHC91 TRACK MODEL.
 
GUINEY/PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/1500Z 16.1N 108.1W   120 KTS
12HR VT     26/0000Z 16.7N 109.6W   110 KTS
24HR VT     26/1200Z 17.5N 111.7W    90 KTS
36HR VT     27/0000Z 18.3N 114.4W    80 KTS
48HR VT     27/1200Z 19.0N 117.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     28/1200Z 20.5N 122.0W    55 KTS
 
 
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