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HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED JUN 24 1998

SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT BLAS IS MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY. 
THE EYE INTERMITTENTLY BECOMES BETTER-DEFINED...AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
T NUMBERS HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING GENERALLY BETWEEN 5.0 AND 6.0. 
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB MIAMI AND SAB WASHINGTON
YIELDED A SIMILAR RANGE FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE.  MAXIMUM
WINDS ARE KEPT AT 100 KNOTS...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STRENGTHENING SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO
LOOK IMPRESSIVE AND THE SEA SURFACE IS STILL FAIRLY WARM.  HOWEVER
WITHIN A DAY OR SO...WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO COMMENCE AS WATER
TEMPERATURES BECOME MARGINAL.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL HURRICANE INTENSITY PREDICTION
SCHEME...SHIPS.

THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.  THE HURRICANE IS MOVING ROUGHLY 300/11 AND THERE IS A
STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  ALL OF THE AVAILABLE TRACK
PREDICTION GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO BLAS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN AT SEA. 
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE MODEL NHC91.
 
PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/2100Z 14.7N 105.7W   100 KTS
12HR VT     25/0600Z 15.5N 107.2W   110 KTS
24HR VT     25/1800Z 16.5N 109.3W   105 KTS
36HR VT     26/0600Z 17.6N 111.6W    95 KTS
48HR VT     26/1800Z 18.5N 114.0W    80 KTS
72HR VT     27/1800Z 19.5N 119.0W    60 KTS
 
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