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HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED JUN 24 1998
 
LATEST ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS WRAPPING
AROUND THE EYE.  THE MOST RECENT OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUPPORT
INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 100 KNOTS.  THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC
OUTFLOW IS IMPRESSIVE OVER ALL BUT THE EASTERN PART OF THE SYSTEM.
BLAS HAS NOW PASSED THE HIGHEST SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...BUT THE
WATERS ARE STILL SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO ALLOW FURTHER STRENGTHENING
TODAY.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
AS A RESULT OF OCEAN WATERS COOLER THAN 26 DEGREES C.
 
THE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED A BIT AND IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE
295/11.  THERE IS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER MEAN RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE...AND ALL AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THEREFORE...A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS FORECAST.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS RATHER SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSE TO THE
STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODEL NHC91.
 
PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/1500Z 14.0N 104.7W   100 KTS
12HR VT     25/0000Z 14.8N 106.3W   115 KTS
24HR VT     25/1200Z 15.9N 108.4W   110 KTS
36HR VT     26/0000Z 17.0N 110.5W   100 KTS
48HR VT     26/1200Z 18.0N 113.0W    85 KTS
72HR VT     27/1200Z 19.0N 118.5W    65 KTS
 
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