ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED JUN 24 1998
 
A RAGGED EYE IS DEPICTED IN CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGES AND IT IS CLEARLY
DEFINED ON THE LATEST NRL MONTEREY SATELLITE MOSAIC (JEFF HAWKINS
HOME PAGE).  T-NUMBERS ARE OSCILLATING AROUND 5.0 ON THE DVORAK
SCALE AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING.  WINDS ARE
ADJUSTED TO 95 KNOTS AT THIS TIME.  SINCE THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR AND
THE OCEAN IS WARM...SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AS
SUGGESTED BY GFDL...SHIPS AND SHIFOR MODELS.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 290/13. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WESTWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA.  BLAS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ON A GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST TRACK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THAT HIGH WHICH IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST AND BUILD
WESTWARD.  THIS TRACK IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE MODELS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL WHICH TURNS BLAS MORE TO THE NORTHWEST BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/0900Z 13.4N 104.1W    95 KTS
12HR VT     24/1800Z 14.0N 106.0W   100 KTS
24HR VT     25/0600Z 15.0N 108.0W   115 KTS
36HR VT     25/1800Z 16.0N 110.5W   110 KTS
48HR VT     26/0600Z 17.0N 112.5W    90 KTS
72HR VT     27/0600Z 18.0N 116.0W    70 KTS
 
 
NNNN