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HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE JUN 23 1998
 
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE PRIMARY RAINBAND WRAPPED
AROUND A SMALL CENTRAL CONVECTIVE BALL...WITH HINTS OF A BANDING-
TYPE EYE.  TAFB DVORAK CLASSIFICATION HAS REACHED 4.0 AND SUPPORTS
UPGRADING BLAS TO BE THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE YEAR IN THE EASTERN
NORTH PACIFIC.  FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 13 KT...STILL TOWARD
THE WNW.
 
THE 06Z AVN RUN MAINTAINS THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH THROUGH WEST
OF BLAS WHICH IMPLIES A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF ITS CURRENT MOTION
...AS INDICATED BY NEARLY ALL TRACK MODELS.  THIS TRACK IS ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO...AND ABOUT 300 MILES OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST.  

A TROUGH THAT MOVES ONSHORE CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 72 HOURS DOES WEAKEN
THE HIGH A LITTLE...LEAVING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT BLAS COULD
EVENTUALLY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON FAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE
GFDL TRACK SUGGESTS THIS...BUT IT IS AN OUTLIER FROM THE OTHER
GUIDANCE AND GFDL METEOROLOGISTS INDICATE THAT THE GFDL MODEL MAY
HAVE BEEN ADVERSELY AFFECTED BY A LESS THAN OPTIMAL AVN
INITIALIZATION.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST AGAIN CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...BEFORE BLAS REACHES SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATERS. 
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/2100Z 12.8N 101.8W    65 KTS
12HR VT     24/0600Z 13.7N 103.5W    75 KTS
24HR VT     24/1800Z 14.7N 105.8W    80 KTS
36HR VT     25/0600Z 15.6N 107.9W    85 KTS
48HR VT     25/1800Z 16.4N 109.7W    85 KTS
72HR VT     26/1800Z 18.0N 113.0W    75 KTS
 
 
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