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TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON JUN 22 1998

...CORRECTION FOR STORM NAME....

SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOWS A BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION...TOPS NEAR -80C...OCCURRING OVER THE ESTIMATED CENTER OF
BLAS. THE OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE IS WELL-DEFINED WHILE
IMPROVING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 3.0 AND 3.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. THEREFORE
THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SET AT 50 KNOTS. THE
FORECAST BRINGS BLAS TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 24 HOURS. BOTH GFDL
AND SHIPS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO WITH SHIPS SUGGESTING THE WARM SST
AS THE PRIMARY CONTRIBUTING FACTOR.        
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/11. THIS REPRESENTS A SLIGHT
DECELERATION FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO A
MID- TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH MOST OF
THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST
MOTION THEY DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY WITH REGARDS TO THE SPEED. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS FASTER THAN CLIPPER AND NHC90 WHILE
SLOWER THAN THE MID AND DEEP BAMS AND LBAR. IT CLOSELY RESEMBLES
THE GFDL. NOGAPS IS THE ONLY MODEL WHICH BRINGS BLAS MORE NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE COAST OF MEXICO.    
 
GUINEY/MAYFIELD

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/0300Z 11.2N  98.1W    55 KTS
12HR VT     23/1200Z 11.9N  99.4W    60 KTS
24HR VT     24/0000Z 12.9N 101.2W    75 KTS
36HR VT     24/1200Z 14.0N 103.3W    85 KTS
48HR VT     25/0000Z 15.0N 105.5W    85 KTS
72HR VT     26/0000Z 17.5N 110.5W    85 KTS
  
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