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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN JUN 21 1998
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/10.  MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A
MOSTLY WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
GOES ALONG WITH THIS AND IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS NOT LOOKING WELL WITH JUST A LITTLE CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER.  THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS
AND WILL BE OVER 25 DEG C WATER LATER TODAY.  THUS...WEAKENING IS
FORECAST WITH DISSIPATION IN APPROXIMATELY 36 HOURS.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/1500Z 18.0N 112.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     22/0000Z 18.2N 114.0W    25 KTS
24HR VT     22/1200Z 18.3N 116.0W    25 KTS
36HR VT     23/0000Z 18.5N 118.1W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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