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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN JUN 21 1998
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/09.  MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A
MOSTLY WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
GOES ALONG WITH THIS AND IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

THE DEPRESSION IS NOT LOOKING WELL WITH JUST A LITTLE DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION.  THE CENTER IS WITHIN 50 N MI OF SOCORRO ISLAND AND
THEIR WIND SPEED AT 03Z WAS 5 MPS.  ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR
WEAKENING AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS OVER 23 DEG C WATER IN 48 HOURS. 
DISSIPATION IS FORECAST AT 48 HOURS.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/0900Z 18.2N 111.3W    30 KTS
12HR VT     21/1800Z 18.8N 112.6W    30 KTS
24HR VT     22/0600Z 19.2N 114.5W    30 KTS
36HR VT     22/1800Z 19.3N 116.4W    25 KTS
48HR VT     23/0600Z 19.5N 118.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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