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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT JUN 20 1998
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AS WELL AS NRL MONTEREY ARRAY OF SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS
PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN
CONVECTION. THIS WAS CAUSED PRIMARILY BY PREVAILING NORTHEASTERLY
WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.  THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
A LITTLE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE LOCATION GIVEN IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THE SYSTEM MAY BE VERY NEAR TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS
BUT... SINCE THE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING AND THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS HEADING FOR COOLER WATERS...IT IS BEING KEPT AS A
DEPRESSION IN THIS ADVISORY.  HOWEVER...A CONVECTIVE BURST COULD
BRING THE SYSTEM TO STORM STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE
WEAKENING OVER COOL WATER BEGINS. BOTH GFDL AND SHIPS DISSIPATE THE
DEPRESSION BY 48 HOURS OR SO.
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW MOVING 290/11.  A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE WEST IS LIKELY AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND BECOME STEERED
BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. 
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/2100Z 17.5N 109.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     21/0600Z 18.0N 111.0W    35 KTS
24HR VT     21/1800Z 18.5N 113.5W    35 KTS
36HR VT     22/0600Z 19.0N 115.5W    30 KTS
48HR VT     22/1800Z 19.5N 118.0W    25 KTS
 
 
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