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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI JUN 19 1998
 
ANIMATION OF SATELLITE PICTURES AGAIN SHOWS A LARGE CIRCULATION
ELONGATED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.  THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE ELONGATION BASED ON TAFB AND SAB ANALYSES.  INITIAL MOTION IS
ESTIMATED AT 290/15 KT.  CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING AT THE MOMENT WHILE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT KEEPING THE SYSTEM AS A
DEPRESSION IN THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE AVN MODEL MAINTAINS A STRONG AND LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
72 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS PATTERN IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE TRACK MODELS AND OFFICIAL
FORECAST ALSO SHOW THAT OUTCOME.   THE GFDL SHOWS DISSIPATION WITHIN
24 HOURS...WHILE THE UKMET SEEMS TO BE FOLLOWING SOMETHING ELSE THAT
IT HAS MODELED ABOUT 5 DEGREES TO THE SOUTH. 
 
SOME EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE PRESENT WITH AN OTHERWISE
PROMINENT OUTFLOW.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE SYSTEM HAS ONLY 
ANOTHER DAY OR SO TO BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED AND STRENGTHEN PRIOR
TO REACHING THE SHARP GRADIENT AND A NEGATIVE ANOMALY IN SSTS.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/0300Z 16.0N 107.1W    30 KTS
12HR VT     20/1200Z 16.8N 109.4W    35 KTS
24HR VT     21/0000Z 17.8N 112.3W    45 KTS
36HR VT     21/1200Z 18.5N 115.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     22/0000Z 19.0N 117.6W    35 KTS
72HR VT     23/0000Z 19.5N 122.5W    25 KTS
 
 
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