ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT FRI JUN 19 1998 ...CORRECTED AFOS BIN NUMBER FROM 1 TO 2 THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICAN COASTS DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH SOME BANDING FEATURES. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM IS BEING CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE ELONGATED AND STILL IS IN FORMATIVE STAGE SO ADJUSTMENTS IN THE INITIAL POSITION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH TAFB DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS. THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED SINCE THE SYSTEM IS UNDER EASTERLY SHEAR BUT LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. THE GFDL DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM IN 18 HOURS AND SHIPS BEGINS TO WEAKEN IT BY 48 HOURS BASICALLY DUE TO COOL SST. HOWEVER..SHIPS IS BASED ON LBAR TRACK FORECAST WHICH HAS A NORTHWARD BIAS. BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/15. GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A 500 MB RIDGE FROM MEXICO WESTWARD ANN THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON THE SAME GENERAL WET NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. GUINEY/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 15.3N 105.7W 30 KTS 12HR VT 20/0600Z 16.1N 107.8W 35 KTS 24HR VT 20/1800Z 17.4N 110.7W 45 KTS 36HR VT 21/0600Z 18.6N 113.5W 45 KTS 48HR VT 21/1800Z 19.5N 116.0W 40 KTS 72HR VT 22/1800Z 21.0N 121.0W 30 KTS NNNN