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TROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON JUN 15 1998
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IS VERY LIMITED. 
INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 35 KNOTS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST
ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS
AGATHA MOVES OVER COOL WATER...AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATED LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/08.  CONSIDERABLE SCATTER PERSISTS IN
THE VARIOUS TRACK PREDICTION MODELS...BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT
THE GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WHILE THE FORWARD SPEED DECREASES IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING STERRING
CURRENTS.  CURRENT TRACK IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH CLIPER
GUIDANCE.

MAYFIELD

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0900Z 19.4N 121.7W    35 KTS
12HR VT     15/1800Z 20.0N 122.8W    35 KTS
24HR VT     16/0600Z 20.4N 123.6W    30 KTS
36HR VT     16/1800Z 20.7N 124.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     17/0600Z 21.0N 125.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     18/0600Z 21.5N 126.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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