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TROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN JUN 14 1998
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10 AND THE MOTION CONTINUES TO
DECELERATE.  TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT...BUT IT DOES
NOT MATTER SINCE THE STORM IS WEAKENING OVER COLDER WATER AND IS
ALREADY MOSTLY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 KNOTS...BUT ONLY BECAUSE THE DVORAK
TECHNIQUE REQURIES A CERTAIN AMOUNT OF TIME FOR THE CIRCULATION TO
SPIN DOWN.  AGATHA HAS BEEN REDUCED TO A SWIRL OF MOSTLY LOW CLOUDS
AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/2100Z 18.6N 120.0W    45 KTS
12HR VT     15/0600Z 19.4N 121.3W    35 KTS
24HR VT     15/1800Z 20.1N 122.7W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     16/0600Z 20.7N 123.8W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     16/1800Z 21.3N 124.6W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     17/1800Z 21.5N 125.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
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