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TROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN JUN 14 1998

CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED IN THE OUTER BANDS...AND DEEP CONVECTION IS
NOW LIMITED TO A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER.  INITIAL
INTENSITY IS DECREASED A LITTLE TO 50 KNOTS...WHICH IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM VARIOUS ANALYSTS.  CONTINUED WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATER.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/16.  LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING SHOULD
ALLOW THE GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO CONTINUE BUT WITH A
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
WEAKENS.  THE CURRENT TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN CLIPER BUT
FASTER THAN THE NAVY NOGAPS.  GFDL SHOWS DISSIPATION WITHIN 48
HOURS.

MAYFIELD

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/0900Z 17.6N 118.6W    50 KTS
12HR VT     14/1800Z 18.7N 120.9W    45 KTS
24HR VT     15/0600Z 19.7N 123.2W    40 KTS
36HR VT     15/1800Z 20.4N 125.0W    30 KTS
48HR VT     16/0600Z 21.0N 126.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     17/0600Z 21.5N 128.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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