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TROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT JUN 13 1998
CORRECTION...CHANGE STORM ONE TO AGATHA
 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/13 AND THIS IS A CONSERVATIVE
SPEED...THE SHORT TERM MOTION COULD BE 15 KNOTS OR EVEN HIGHER.  THE
TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLY DIVERGENT WITH THE NOGAPS AND
LBAR SHOWING A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND THE GFDL AND UKMET TURNING
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE MOSTLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH CONSIDERABLE DECELERATION AFTER 24
HOURS.  THE DECELERATION IS A STRATEGY OF CHOICE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF DIRECTION OF MOTION.
 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM T NUMBERS 3.0 TO 3.5 AND THE
WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS WITH SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING
FOR 12 HOURS OR SO...AFTER WHICH COOLER SSTS SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING.
THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECAST.
 
THERE IS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND THE
34 KNOT WIND RADII ARE INCREASED TO 200 N MI IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE ON THIS BASIS.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/1500Z 14.8N 113.5W    50 KTS
12HR VT     14/0000Z 15.7N 115.2W    55 KTS
24HR VT     14/1200Z 17.0N 117.5W    55 KTS
36HR VT     15/0000Z 17.7N 119.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     15/1200Z 18.5N 120.5W    35 KTS
72HR VT     16/1200Z 19.0N 123.0W    30 KTS
 
 
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