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TROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT JUN 13 1998
 
LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS
NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND BANDING FEATURES ARE INCREASING.   
T-NUMBERS RANGE FROM 2.5 AT SAB AND GLOBAL TO 3.0 AT TAFB.  ALSO THE
OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS IMPROVED ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN THE
PAST 24-HOURS. THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
STORM AGATHA...THE FIRST EASTERN PACIFIC STORM OF THE 1998 SEASON.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM UNTIL IT MOVES
OVER COOLER WATERS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. 
 
TRACK MODELS REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT.  HOWEVER...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM
APPEARS CORRECT.  THUS...THE OFFICIAL TRACK CONTINUES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/0900Z 14.0N 112.3W    40 KTS
12HR VT     13/1800Z 14.9N 113.9W    40 KTS
24HR VT     14/0600Z 16.0N 116.0W    35 KTS
36HR VT     14/1800Z 17.2N 118.1W    35 KTS
48HR VT     15/0600Z 18.3N 120.2W    30 KTS
72HR VT     16/0600Z 19.9N 124.1W    30 KTS
 
 
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