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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI JUN 12 1998

LATEST AVAILABLE VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME SO MUCH BETTER DEFINED THAT I WAS
TEMPTED TO UPGRADE THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS AT THIS TIME. 
HOWEVER...IR IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE CONVECTION IS WEAK AND CONFINED
TO A CURVED BAND TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  IF CONVECTION
REDEVELOPS AND WRAPS AROUND THE CENTER DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY BE NAMED IN THE NEXT ADVISORY.  WE
ARE FORECASTING AN INCREASE OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES
OVER COOLER WATERS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...SKILLS
IN FORECASTING INTENSITY CHANGE ARE LIMITED.

TRACK MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT.  THE NOGAPS AND THE UK MODELS ARE
TAKING THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD.  STATE OF THE ART AND RELIABLE
GFDL...AND THE AVN MODELS ARE MOVING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD. BAM AND
STATISTICAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD.  IF WARNINGS HAD TO BE
ISSUED UNDER THESE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK MODELS...IT WOULD
REQUIRE TO ISSUE THEM FOR A RATHER LARGE AREA.  

SINCE GLOBAL MODELS ARE BUILDING A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND WESTWARD...A CONTINUED
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST IS REASONABLE AS SUGGESTED
BY CLIMATOLOGY AND BAM MODELS.

AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/0300Z 13.1N 110.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     13/1200Z 13.5N 112.3W    35 KTS
24HR VT     14/0000Z 14.0N 114.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     14/1200Z 14.5N 116.5W    40 KTS
48HR VT     15/0000Z 15.0N 118.5W    30 KTS
72HR VT     16/0000Z 15.0N 122.5W    30 KTS
 
 
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