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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI JUN 12 1998
 
THE SYSTEM REMAINS BROAD WITH SOME BANDING FEATURES ATTEMPTING
TO WRAP INTO THE CENTER. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE 
BANDS IS RATHER WEAK AND DISORGANIZED. THUS...THE INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 30 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY..IN AGREEMENT WITH TAFB AND
SAB. WHILE THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY FOR THIS SYSTEM TO REACH
TROPICAL STORM STATUS THE LIMITATION WILL BE THE COOLER WATERS
NEAR 114W/115W DENOTED IN CURRENT IMAGERY AS THE LEADING EDGE OF
A STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK.   

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10 KNOTS. SATELLITE-BASED LOCATION FIXES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  THE 18Z FORECAST TRACK
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE SCATTER. THE NOGAPS AND UKMET
SOLUTION ARE TAKING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD WHILE THE
AVIATION AND GFDI SHOW A SOUTHWEST MOTION. ONCE AGAIN A SPURIOUS
VORTEX IN THE AVIATION INITIALIZATION EAST OF THE SYSTEM...11N97W..
IS THE LIKELY CULPRIT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS IN BETWEEN 
AND CALLS FOR A WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME DECREASE
IN FORWARD MOTION IS FORECAST AS THE STEERING CURRENTS BECOME
WEAKER.

GUINEY/LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/2100Z 12.1N 109.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     13/0600Z 12.3N 111.0W    35 KTS
24HR VT     13/1800Z 12.6N 113.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     14/0600Z 12.9N 114.8W    35 KTS
48HR VT     14/1800Z 13.0N 116.5W    30 KTS
72HR VT     15/1800Z 13.5N 119.5W    30 KTS
 
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