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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI JUN 12 1998

SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E
IS LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AND THE FIRST
AVAILABLE VISIBLE IMAGES SUPPORT THIS LOCATION ESTIMATE. A BAND OF
CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY NORTH AND
EAST OF THE CENTER OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. 

OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE REMAINS GOOD WHILE SATELLITE-
DERIVED MID- TO UPPER- TROPOSPHERIC WINDS SHOW 20-30 KT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. THIS
MAY BE PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE INABILITY OF THE DEPRESSION TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.

THE 00Z MRF MID- TO UPPER- LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHOW 20-30 KNOTS
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH AS THE
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MIGRATES WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM REACHING TROPICAL STORM STATUS...35
KNOTS...BY 24 HOURS AND HELD CONSTANT THEREAFTER AS THE SYSTEM
ENCROACHES ON COOLER WATERS. 

THE INITAL MOTION IS 280/09 KNOTS. SATELLITE-BASED POSITION FIXES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE OFFICAL FORECAST TRACK
CONTINUES THE MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
12Z FORECAST TRACK MODELS IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH BAMM/BAMD
ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY SLOWER. 
 
GUINEY/LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/1500Z 11.8N 108.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     13/0000Z 12.0N 109.6W    30 KTS
24HR VT     13/1200Z 12.3N 111.4W    35 KTS
36HR VT     14/0000Z 12.7N 113.5W    35 KTS
48HR VT     14/1200Z 13.0N 115.5W    35 KTS
72HR VT     15/1200Z 14.0N 119.5W    35 KTS
 
 
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