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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI JUN 12 1998
 
LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE POORLY DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS ELONGATED IN A
NORTH-NORTHWEST/SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. ALSO...MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION.  THUS...THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED.  INTENSITY
FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRENGTHENING TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES COOLER WATERS.  HOWEVER...FORECAST WIND
FIELDS SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE IN CURRENT PATTERNS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWEST.  THUS...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A
DEPRESSION UNTIL IT DISSIPATES IN COOLER WATERS.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 285/09.  THIS DIRECTION AND SPEED ARE MAINTAINED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION
AT THE END.  THIS IS IN SYNC WITH NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH
BUILD AND MAINTAIN A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS
THE CURRENT MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS. 
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/0900Z 11.8N 107.3W    30 KTS
12HR VT     12/1800Z 12.2N 108.6W    30 KTS
24HR VT     13/0600Z 12.6N 110.5W    30 KTS
36HR VT     13/1800Z 12.9N 112.3W    30 KTS
48HR VT     14/0600Z 13.3N 114.3W    30 KTS
72HR VT     15/0600Z 14.4N 118.7W    30 KTS
 
 
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