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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU JUN 11 1998
 
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS VERY BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED. 
LETS FACE IT...THE CENTER CAN BE LOCATED ANYWHERE WITHIN A RADIUS OF
100 N MI. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND THE CONVECTION
IS SHAPELESS MEANING THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES
DISORGANIZED.  SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL HAS ONLY A MODEST
STRENGTHENING...THE GFDL PRACTICALLY DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM BY 72
HOURS OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN AND
CALLS FOR 50 KNOT WINDS...BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES COOLER WATERS.
THIS IS A LITTLE BIT LESS THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 

THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING AIMLESSLY...POSSIBLY DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION.  MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST
THAT A RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS THE
CURRENT MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A GENERAL
WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS AS INDICATED BY MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFDL.
 
AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/0300Z 12.0N 106.3W    30 KTS
12HR VT     12/1200Z 12.0N 107.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     13/0000Z 12.0N 109.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     13/1200Z 12.5N 111.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     14/0000Z 13.0N 114.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     15/0000Z 14.5N 119.5W    50 KTS
 
 
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