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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU JUN 11 1998
 
THE CENTER HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND FIXES FROM TAFB...SAB... AND KGWC ARE NOW IN CLOSER
AGREEMENT.  THE CENTER IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD SOMEWHAT FROM THE
PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THESE FIXES.  WHILE CONVECTION REMAINS
RAGGED NEAR THE CENTER...A WELL-DEFINED BAND PERSISTS JUST TO THE
WEST.  INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 30 KNOTS IN AGREEMENT WITH ALL
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNTIL THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.  

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12 KNOTS. THE 12Z AVIATION MODEL
RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW A SPURIOUS VORTEX TO THE EAST OF THE
DEPRESSION. THIS CONTAMINATES THE TRACK MODELS WHICH RELY ON THE
AVIATION BACKGROUND FIELDS. MEANWHILE...THE NAVY NOGAPS MODEL IS
CONSIDERED MORE REALISTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE. 

GUINEY/MAYFIELD
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/2100Z 12.4N 106.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     12/0600Z 12.8N 108.2W    35 KTS
24HR VT     12/1800Z 13.3N 110.4W    45 KTS
36HR VT     13/0600Z 13.8N 112.5W    55 KTS
48HR VT     13/1800Z 14.5N 115.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     14/1800Z 16.0N 120.5W    60 KTS
 
 
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