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HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST MON NOV 30 1998
 
NICOLE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH AN EMBEDDED
CENTER PATTERN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.  HOWEVER...THE MOST RECENT
VISIBLE PICTURES HINT AT A POSSIBLE EYE FEATURE RE-EMERGING WITH
A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 65 KNOTS WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING FORECAST  
PER THE LAST PACKAGE.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BY 36 HOURS AS IT MERGES WITH A FRONTAL ZONE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/12 KNOTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AS THE TRACK PREDICTION
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY ACCELERATING AS IT
ROUNDS THE EASTERN SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH BAMD.

THE NHC TRACK FORECAST BRINGS NICOLE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE AZORES
BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS AND THUS THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS.  THIS WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE PUBLIC ADVISORY.  

THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
OUTWARD BASED ON A 0900 UTC SHIP REPORT. 
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/1500Z 34.1N  39.8W    65 KTS
12HR VT     01/0000Z 35.4N  37.4W    60 KTS
24HR VT     01/1200Z 37.2N  34.2W    55 KTS
36HR VT     02/0000Z 40.6N  31.9W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     02/1200Z 45.0N  31.5W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     03/1200Z 53.5N  37.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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