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HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST MON NOV 30 1998

AN EYE IS NO LONGER EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGES...BUT DVORAK
ANALYSES USING THE EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM
IS STILL NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH.  HOWEVER...THE CLOUD PATTERN IS
BECOMING MORE ASYMMETRIC...WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL LOW IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...AS SHOWN
BY THE LATEST AVN RUN OF THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL.

ALTHOUGH INITIAL MOTION...050/12...IS JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
BEFORE...MOST OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW
ACCELERATION WITH STEERING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH AND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES.  THE
CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NCEP
GLOBAL MODEL AND SIMILAR TO THE LATEST GFDL TRACK...THOUGH NOT AS
FAST.  THE FORECAST TRACK SHOWS NICOLE PASSING A LITTLE FARTHER WEST
OF THE AZORES...BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY HAVE EFFECTS ON
THOSE ISLANDS IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. 

IT IS OF INTEREST TO NOTE THAT...WITH NICOLE HAVING REACHED
HURRICANE STRENGTH...THE TOTAL OF 33 HURRICANES DURING THE FOUR-
YEAR PERIOD FROM 1995-1998 IS THE HIGHEST ON RECORD.
 
PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/0900Z 33.5N  41.2W    65 KTS
12HR VT     30/1800Z 34.5N  39.5W    60 KTS
24HR VT     01/0600Z 36.5N  36.5W    55 KTS
36HR VT     01/1800Z 39.0N  33.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     02/0600Z 43.0N  32.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     03/0600Z 51.0N  34.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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