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HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SUN NOV 29 1998
 
SATELLITE PICTURES OVER ABOUT THE PAST 12 HOURS HAVE SHOWN A RAGGED
EYE...SUGGESTING THAT NICOLE HAS PROBABLY BEEN AT THE THRESHOLD OF
HURRICANE STRENGTH FOR PART OF THAT PERIOD.  WITH THAT IN MIND...AND
WITH TAFB DVORAK ANALYSES GIVING NUMBERS OF 3.5 TO 4.0 AT 00Z...
NICOLE WILL BE UPGRADED TO A 65 KT HURRICANE ON THIS ADVISORY. 
CURRENTLY...THE CENTRAL PART OF NICOLE CONSISTS OF A WARM SPOT
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROKEN RING OF EYEWALL CONVECTION WITH FAIRLY WARM
TOPS.  THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS DIFFLUENT TO THE EAST WITH MOST
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD.
 
INITIAL MOTION USING THE WARM SPOT AS THE CENTER IS 050/13 KT...
SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
NICOLE CROSSING A NARROW E-W RIDGE AND BEGINNING TO BECOME ENTRAINED
INTO THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH.  FLOW AROUND A STRONG TROUGH TO
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO CARRY NICOLE TOWARD THE NE...AS
INDICATED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MODEL TRACKS.  BY 36 TO 48 HOURS
...NICOLE SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL WHILE PASSING NEAR THE WESTERN
AZORES.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE WEAKER BY THEN.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/0300Z 32.9N  42.0W    65 KTS
12HR VT     30/1200Z 33.8N  40.1W    60 KTS
24HR VT     01/0000Z 35.4N  37.2W    55 KTS
36HR VT     01/1200Z 37.4N  34.4W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     02/0000Z 39.5N  31.1W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     03/0000Z 45.5N  27.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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