ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 10 AM EST SUN NOV 29 1998 THE CENTER OF THE STORM REMAINS LOCATED UNDER THE SOUTH-WESTERN EDGE OF A PERSISTENT MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE AREA APPEARS TO BE A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR FOR MAINTAINING NICOLES INTENSITY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD SOON TAKE PLACE SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND THE STORM IS MOVING OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NICOLE IS LIKELY TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN A DAY OR TWO. NICOLE SEEMS TO BE TRACKING ALONG PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER...050/11 KTS. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SPREAD. THE UKMET AND NHC98 SHOW CONSIDERABLE ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LBAR...GFDL AND BAMD ARE SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TWO. FINALLY...THE BAMS...AVN AND NOGAPS SHOW VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT AND SLOWLY CURVE THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THE ABOVE GUIDANCE AND CLOSELY PARALLELS THE GFDL TRACK AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER. JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/1500Z 31.1N 44.6W 45 KTS 12HR VT 30/0000Z 32.2N 43.1W 40 KTS 24HR VT 30/1200Z 33.0N 41.1W 35 KTS 36HR VT 01/0000Z 33.5N 39.2W 35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 01/1200Z 34.0N 37.2W 35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 02/1200Z 35.0N 33.0W 35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN