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TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SAT NOV 28 1998
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHEAR PATTERN...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.  THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION IS IN A LIMITED AREA BUT HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT. 
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST
ESTIMATES FROM THE AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY....SAB...AND TAFB.  THE
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/09.  CONSIDERABLE SCATTER EXISTS IN
THE TRACK GUIDANCE...AND THE FUTURE TRACK WILL LIKELY DEPEND UPON
THE STRENGTH OF NICOLE.  IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WERE TO BECOME
STRONGER AGAIN...IT WOULD LIKELY BE PICKED UP BY THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST AND RECURVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST AS INDICATED BY THE DEEP
LAYER BAM....NHC98...AND THE UKMET MODELS.  HOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY...THE TROUGH MAY PASS IT BY AND LITTLE OVERALL
MOTION COULD RESULT AS INDICATED BY THE NAVY NOGAPS...THE AVIATION
MODEL...THE MID AND SHALLOW BAM.  OUR OFFICIAL TRACK WILL TAKE THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD AND INDICATE ONLY A SLOW RECURVATURE...IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL MODEL.
 
MAYFIELD
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/0300Z 29.2N  46.4W    45 KTS
12HR VT     29/1200Z 30.5N  46.0W    40 KTS
24HR VT     30/0000Z 31.5N  44.5W    35 KTS
36HR VT     30/1200Z 32.3N  43.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     01/0000Z 32.8N  41.6W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     02/0000Z 33.5N  39.5W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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