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TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST FRI NOV 27 1998
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/11.
 
THE 18Z AVIATION MODEL SHOWS THE STORM ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB COLL
REGION THAT ENCOUNTERS WESTERLIES AFTER 48 HOURS.  ONLY THE SHALLOW
BAM AND CLIPER MODELS SHOW MUCH MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION.
THE OTHERS SLOWLY RECURVE THE STORM EXCEPT THE UKMET WHICH SHOWS
NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION TO MORE THAN 48 KNOTS FORWARD SPEED AFTER
48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND OTHER MODELS
THROUGH 72 HOURS.
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UP A LITTLE AND THE WIND SPEED IS
INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS.  THE PROSPECTS FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING
ARE QUESTIONABLE AS A COLD FRONT AND WESTERLIES APPROACH THE STORM.
THE GFDL DOES FORECAST 80 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS BUT ITS SKILL IS
QUESTIONABLE FOR A WHILE LONGER.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0300Z 25.7N  44.7W    45 KTS
12HR VT     28/1200Z 26.0N  46.5W    50 KTS
24HR VT     29/0000Z 28.0N  48.0W    55 KTS
36HR VT     29/1200Z 29.5N  47.0W    60 KTS
48HR VT     30/0000Z 31.0N  47.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     01/0000Z 33.5N  43.5W    50 KTS
 
 
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