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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST FRI NOV 27 1998
 
THE LOW THAT WAS NICOLE HAS SURVIVED THE EXTREME VERTICAL SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT IT HAS BEEN IN FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS AND HAS MADE A
COMEBACK.  ALTHOUGH THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE SOUTHWEST
SIDE...INDICATING THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOT TOTALLY FREE OF A SHEARING
ENVIRONMENT... DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT
THE SYSTEM HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND IS NOW AT 30 KNOTS. 
THUS...THE LOW IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION NICOLE AT 15Z.

INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNCLEAR...SHIPS WEAKENS THE SYSTEM WITH
TIME BUT THE GFDL INTENSIFIES NICOLE BACK TO A 60 KNOT TROPICAL
STORM IN 72 HOURS.  SINCE NICOLE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE MAXIMUM
LATITUDE OF RECURVATURE AT 48 HOURS IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD MAKE
HURRICANE INTENSITY BEFORE MOVING OVER COLDER WATERS.  THIS
POSSIBILITY IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST.
 
TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TOWARD THE WEST AND
WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THEN TO BEGIN A
GRADUAL RECURVATURE AROUND THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AS THE SYSTEM
IS PICKED UP BY AN APPROACHING WESTERLY TROUGH.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/1500Z 25.4N  42.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     28/0000Z 25.7N  43.8W    35 KTS
24HR VT     28/1200Z 26.6N  45.7W    45 KTS
36HR VT     29/0000Z 28.0N  47.3W    55 KTS
48HR VT     29/1200Z 30.0N  47.7W    65 KTS
72HR VT     30/1200Z 34.0N  45.0W    55 KTS
 
 
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