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TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST WED NOV 25 1998
 
THE CENTER OF NICOLE REMAINS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DENSE
OVERCAST.  UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS RESULTED IN WEAKENING...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 35 KNOTS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  STRONG WESTERLIES AT
HIGH LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE WEAKENING TREND TO CONTINUE.  NICOLE WILL
LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOON AND THERE IS A
STRONG POSSIBILITY THAT IT WILL NOT SURVIVE AS AN IDENTIFIABLE
SYSTEM THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 255/08.  NICOLE SHOULD MOVE AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID- LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STORM.  CURRENT TRACK IS ALONG THE LINES OF
THE GFDL AND NOGAPS...AND AT A SPEED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE
SHALLOW AND MID LAYER BAMS.
 
MAYFIELD
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0300Z 25.6N  35.9W    35 KTS
12HR VT     26/1200Z 25.3N  37.2W    30 KTS
24HR VT     27/0000Z 25.3N  39.0W    30 KTS
36HR VT     27/1200Z 25.7N  41.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     28/0000Z 26.5N  43.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     29/0000Z 30.0N  45.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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