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TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST WED NOV 25 1998

THE LATEST RUN OF THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AS ANOTHER DIGS NEAR THE U.S.
EAST COAST IN A DAY OR TWO.  THE RESULT OF THIS IS A DISCONTINUOUS
RETROGRESSION WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. 
BASED ON THE ABOVE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD...
ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE SHALLOW AND MEDIUM-LAYER BAM TRACKS.

HIGH-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE INCREASING
AND NICOLE HAS MORE OF A SHEARED APPEARANCE THAN IT DID YESTERDAY. 
ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS HOMEPAGE SHOW
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK.  GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST.

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/1500Z 26.2N  34.3W    50 KTS
12HR VT     26/0000Z 25.7N  35.7W    50 KTS
24HR VT     26/1200Z 25.3N  37.2W    45 KTS
36HR VT     27/0000Z 25.3N  38.8W    40 KTS
48HR VT     27/1200Z 25.5N  40.0W    35 KTS
72HR VT     28/1200Z 26.0N  42.0W    25 KTS
 
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