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TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST WED NOV 25 1998
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 250/09...SAME AS LAST ADVISORY.  THE
STORM APPEARS TO BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW AND
A RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SHORT
WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL NOT PICK UP THE STORM AND THAT
IT WILL CONTINUE A MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION UNTIL THE NEXT SHORT WAVE. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THIS REASONING AND IS ADJUSTED TO
THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT STILL SHOWS AN INCREASING
NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION AFTER 48 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE
SECOND SHORT WAVE.  IT IS NOTED THAT MPC GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
ALTERNATE SOLUTION OF THE STORM BEING PICKED UP BY THE FIRST SHORT
WAVE AND THIS WOULD PUT THE 72 HOUR POSITION SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SHORT WAVE ARE
WITHIN ABOUT 500 N MI AND ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STORM IN ABOUT
24 HOURS.

SHIP REPORTS AT 06Z SHOW THAT THE 24-KNOT WIND SPEED RADII HAVE
INCREASED CONSIDERABLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMI CIRCLE.  THIS IS..TO
SOME EXTENT...REFLECTED IN THIS ADVISORY.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0900Z 26.4N  33.4W    60 KTS
12HR VT     25/1800Z 26.0N  34.7W    60 KTS
24HR VT     26/0600Z 25.7N  37.6W    55 KTS
36HR VT     26/1800Z 25.8N  38.5W    50 KTS
48HR VT     27/0600Z 26.5N  40.0W    40 KTS
72HR VT     28/0600Z 28.5N  41.5W    25 KTS
  
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