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TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST TUE NOV 24 1998
 
THE CENTRAL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE QUITE SMALL AND
CLOUD TOPS ARE NOT VERY COLD.  HOWEVER...THE INTERMITTENT EYE-LIKE
FEATURE NOTED EARLIER IN THE VISIBLE IMAGES APPEARS TO BE SHOWING UP
AS AN INTERMITTENT WARM SPOT IN THE INFRARED IMAGES.  THEREFORE...
THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 60 KNOTS.  AS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS NOT FORECAST...SINCE
STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NEARBY AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE
MARGINAL...AROUND 25 DEG CELSIUS.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR...DUE TO STRONG SHEAR.
 
MOTION IS 250/09.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THE GUIDANCE GIVEN
BY THE GFDL...BAMS...AND THE AVN...WHICH IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE HAD
THE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH.  THEREFORE...NOT MUCH CHANGE IS MADE FROM
THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT ACCELERATION TO
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FROM 48 TO 72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM IS PICKED UP
BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST.  SEVERAL TRACK GUIDANCE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MORE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT AND THE
DEEP-LAYER BAM TURNS NICOLE EASTWARD TO AFRICA LATE IN THE PERIOD. 
THE MORE SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TRACKS MAY BE THE RESULT OF STEERING
OF THE LARGER SCALE CYCLONIC GYRE WITHIN WHICH THE STORM IS
EMBEDDED.
   
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0300Z 26.8N  32.5W    60 KTS
12HR VT     25/1200Z 26.3N  33.9W    60 KTS
24HR VT     26/0000Z 26.0N  35.7W    60 KTS
36HR VT     26/1200Z 26.2N  37.2W    50 KTS
48HR VT     27/0000Z 26.9N  38.6W    40 KTS
72HR VT     28/0000Z 32.0N  40.0W    25 KTS
 
 
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